OECD’s composite leading indicators (CLIs) for May 2010 continue to point to an expansion but with stronger signals of a slowing pace of growth than in last month’s assessment for the OECD area.
The report shows that Ireland moved from a recovery phase to an expansion phase in March 2010. This is measured by rating an increase or decrease in economic activity against the long-term trend in industrial production. The long-term trend is a reference point given the value of 100. Activity increased slowly but progressively since June 2009 and in March 2010 activity increased above the value of the reference point. There is continuing expansion with the figures for April 2010 being 101.33 and May 2010 being 102.06 but the figures also demonstrate a slowing in the rate of increase.
Peaks in the growth cycle have emerged in France, Italy and China and tentative signs of a peak are emerging in Canada, the UK and Brazil. CLIs for Germany, Japan, the US and Russian continue to indicate that the ongoing expansion in activity is likely to be maintained but possibly at a slower pace.