Tom Ferris is a Consultant Economist specialising in Better Regulation. He was formerly the Department of Transport’s Senior Economist.
IMF SHOWS CONFIDENCE IN IRELAND’S ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just published its latest global economic forecast. It foresees lower global economic growth in 2015 compared to 2014. On a regional basis, it forecasts a modest pick-up in advanced economies. And, by contrast, slow growth is forecast for emerging markets, mainly reflecting weakness in the large emerging economies, especially China and oil-exporting countries. But Ireland remains on track in its economic recovery.1
No great surprises
The forecasts contain no great surprises. Advance speeches have been signalling ‘slow-growth’. In a speech in Washington on 30 September,Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, shared the information that
“…global growth will likely be weaker this year than last, with only a modest acceleration expected in 2016. The good news is that we are seeing a modest pickup in advanced economies… The not-so-good news is that emerging economies are likely to see their fifth consecutive year of declining rates of growth”.2
Composition of Growth
In this most recent forecast, the global economy is expected to expand by just 3.1% this year, and 3.6% next year. This represents a downward revision from previous forecasts; by 0.2% in both cases. It is pointed out that even though wealthy countries are showing signs of recovery – led by US growth forecasts at 2.6% for 2015 and 2.8% for 2016 – the world economy is on track for its worst year since the global recession of 2009. The IMF concludes that “